A Series - Winning in 2020

The following sub-posts are taken from the Galveston County Democrats, open forum, Facebook group/announcements.  It includes the original post plus added comments.

 

Two Critical Elements in 2020 Election

 
We've already lost once to a fool. The incumbent has the advantage and is backed by the oligarchs who own the media. If he starts a war, defeating him gets even harder. This is going to be a hard win and must be decisive.
 
Our democratically chosen opponent for the husband of Melania must beat him unquestionably by a significant margin that CANNOT be debated. We must take back the Senate and grow our grip on the House. This election must rid us of this minority-driven, right-wing, authoritarian cancer, not just keep the cancer at bay while America dies a slow death!
 

Our opponent, and who he represents, have been whittling away at our laws and form of government for decades. We need a massive and decisive response AND someone to inspire us beyond what Obama did in 2008. 

Our democratic choice of a challenger AND massive voter turnout go hand-in-hand for 2020. We need both. Both are critical for complete, immediate, and final success in 2020 so we can start to rebuild America for we the people.


99PercentVote.png

Incidental Remarks:

From original post: "If he starts a war, defeating him gets even harder." And now we are on the verge of a new war with Iran. The Republican strategy for winning the presidency repeats.

America’s Authoritarian Cancer Is Spreading Rapidly:  In my original comments above I misspoke by referring to America as dying a slow death from a cancer. The cancer is really really stage four, metastatic. Our body politic is in extreme pain and needs massive, united, democratic, positive action.
Democratic Choice, as it affects voter turnout, Is Critical in 2020:
Analysis of the 2016 presidential voter turnout, shows:
- fewer votes for the Democratic candidate than in 2008 and 2012, and
- a marked increase in voting for a third parties.
 
Voter turnout for 2016 general elections show similar results for Galveston county:
 
- Galveston County Third Party votes
--- Avg from 2002 to 2014: 1,447 (1.4% of total voter)
--- 2016: 5,488 (4.5% of total voter)
 
- Galvestion County Democratic General voter turnout
--- Avg from 2000 to 2012: 41,314 (26.6% of registered voters)
--- 2016: 43.658 (23.5% of registered voters)
 
Based on voter turnout as percentage of registered voters, there was a 3.1% drop from our county historical avg for Democrats in 2016 for GC. What is also noteworthy of the 2016 GC vote was a tripling of votes for third parties from 1.4% historical avg to 4.5%, or 3.1% growth.

 

Who's A Centrist?

On Minimizing Economic, Social, Racial, and Envrironmental Injustices, ...

... who's a centrist?

On either maximizing inequality or maximizing equality, ...

... who's a centrist?

On only empowering and protecting the wealthy or equally empowering and protecting all citizens, ...

... who's a centrist?

On either war or peace, ...

... who's a centrist?

On winning in 2020 or losing in 2020, ...

... who's a centrist?

The pool of centrist, blue-no-matter-who, voters was too small in 2016 to win and is not enough for winning in 2020.  As shown below, Democrats lost 9.6 million votes in 2016 to third parties and the couch at home.   The unified pool of all those voters to the left of the Tea Party IS large enough.  They are inspired to vote by those who address the economic, social, racial, and environmental injustices they all suffer from and want addressed by our government.

 

We Must Move Forward ...

 

 

These lost votes were not centrist voters.

Avoiding2016Losses.png

 

Democracy or Oligarchy - There is no Center.   "But today the real contest is between the people and the powerful – the vast majority of Americans versus an oligarchy that’s amassed most of the nation’s wealth and power."

Maximizing The 2020 Democratic Presidential Vote - Democracy Must Shine in the Democratic Primary Process

Many Democrats assume it’s impossible to get more people of color to vote. That’s just not true.

“Wasn’t the problem [in 2016 presidential election], at its most elemental, that not enough of our supporters voted with us?”
 
“Clinton lost Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes, and 400,000 African Americans who were eligible to vote didn’t cast ballots. In Arizona, the margin was 91,000 votes, and 600,000 Latinos who were eligible to vote were not mobilized to the polls.”
 
“ … shouldn’t some sector of donors commit eight-figure sums to solving the problem of getting more people to vote?“
 

We cannot afford a repeat of 2016 in 2020!!!

To that end, Democrats need a primary candidate selection process that maximizes both voter participation and the democratic process. This will assure maximum voter turnout in 2020. Those who both turn up to participate in the primaries/caucuses and feel it was a fair process, and those of like mind who watch from afar, will be more inclined to vote in the 2020 national election. Without both voters and a clearly democratic selection process, the inept, incumbent, DJT, could get re-elected with just his NRA and white evangelical base. As his approval polls among Republicans shows, they still admire him while he protects and advances their interests.

 

Who’s Voice of Reason?

Saying that there needs to be a “voice of reason” ignores that we all reason differently based on many factors.

There are two representative models of family/culture and we are all some mix of the two. On one end of this continuum is the Strict Father/Domination model. On the other, there is the Nurturant Parents/Partnership model.

Our national problem is that we have been tricked into letting a minority of exemplary Strict Father/Domination-reasoning, rich, homophobic, heterosexual, christianist, misogynistic, white men take control of our majority nurturant partnership culture.

Read Nurturing Our Humanity by Eisler/Fry for the latest research then help make sure the nurturant majority votes always and in significant numbers.

 

Winning in 2020 … UNITY!

The oligarchs occupy the White House. The oligarchs own the GOP and others in the US Congress. Both branches are stacking the federal courts with oligarch lackeys.
 
The oligarchs put profit before people.
 
The oligarchs, including non-citizens, use all media to distract us from their theft of our government.
 
Until all those left of the Tea Party UNITE, the oligarchs will continue to win!
 
The Democratic Party needs to lead this democratic unity to defeat the oligarchs by maximizing a democratic nomination process thus assuring maximum voter support for our Democratic candidates in 2020 and beyond.
TheyWantYourTorches.JPG

 

"Gabby Hays had whiskers. Lenin had a beard."-- comedian George Carlin.  My reference to the term "oligarchs" is apparently not what the owners of our media prefers to use.

 

Winning in 2020 - Rally Against ALL Who Abuse and Divide Us

The election is about more than replacing the perpetrator of abusive, right-wing authoritarian, policies who occupies The White House. It’s also about rejecting ALL right-wing authoritarians who benefit from and influence DJT’s selfish and hateful policies. It’s about changing our dysfunctional, autocratic, government and eliminating the influence of those who helped mold it in their image:
 
  • religious power brokers like Doug Coe, recently deceased, and The Family who have been secretly promoting a Christianity for the elite, a dictatorship of the divine, a theocracy, to all U.S. presidents since Eisenhower,
  • Libertarian, no-compromise, billionaires like Charles Koch who have been secretly planning to neuter the federal government, eliminate majority rule, and assure billionaires can veto governmental decisions by re-writing our Constitution,
  • national and international billionaires who use media to divide, influence, and blind us to their desire to rule by virtue of their wealth.
 
The White House is occupied by the oligarchs. The Senate is owned by the oligarchs. These two governmental branches are stacking the federal courts with oligarch lackeys to rule in their favor for decades to some.
 

The 2020 election may be our last and best chance to build a more equitable, caring, and sustainable future.

 

 

Winning in 2020 - A Forecast based on US History and rebellion.

The White House is occupied by the the oligarchs. The Senate is owned by the oligarchs and the two are packing the federal courts, including the Supreme Court, with oligarch lackeys.
 
If we want to return to rule by the people, it has to start with we the people, and rule by we the people has to manifest itself through increased voter participation in the 2020 election. This increase in participation is enhanced by population growth of 3.5%, a small growth in the number of eligible voters due to changing demographics, and a sense of rebellion against the oligarchs.
 
The percentages in the following two paragraphs are based on the Voting Eligible Populations (VEP) for that election.
 
* Relative to 2008, the rebellion in 2020 total voter participation must grow by at least 2.58%, the loss of votes to third parties must be cut in half to 1.26%, and the total vote for the Democratic candidate must increase by 1.42%.
 
* In other words, relative to the losses between the 2008 and 2016 election, we must avoid a 2.38% drop in total votes, a 2.52% increase for third party candidates, and a 4.07% drop in votes for the Democratic candidate.
 
The above is based on the following:
 
* Historical data from 2008 and 2016 on votes and population
 
* Assumptions for 2020
  • The nomination of a Democratic candidate that appeals to the greatest number of all those left of the Tea Party.
  • A Democratic Party nomination process that exemplifies democratic principles and values
  • Voter turnout overcomes massive, continuing GOP voter suppression efforts and other internal and external influences
  • Population growth of 3.5%, Voting Age Population (VAP growth of 0.75% growth to 77.9%, Voting Eligible Population (VEP) growth of 0.70% to 71.95%, all relative to 2016
  • Extremist Republican voter turnout has peaked at 28% as a percentage of VEP, this is in keeping with the following quote from John Dean from his book Conservatives Without Conscience: “Probably about 20 to 25 percent of the adult American population is so right-wing authoritarian, so scared, so self-righteous, so ill-informed, and so dogmatic that nothing you can say or do will change their minds. … And they are so submissive to their leaders that they will believe and do virtually anything they are told. They are not going to let up and they are not going away.”
  • Democratic voter turnout increases 1.42% over 2008 and 5.49% over 2016 as a percentage of VEP
  • Third party votes are reduced 50% to 1.26% from 2016
  • All this generates a 2.58% increase in the total vote for 2020. Seems possible
 

The result is Democrats win 53% of the 2020 total vote. These assumptions also lead to a total voter turnout of 64.1%. The closest historical, http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present, numbers to this turnout rate last occurred in 1904 (65.5%) and 1908 (65.7%). The history of these early 20th century votes, https://youtu.be/GDtSSFEZY38, was that they were in response to another guided age after the civil war, the industrialization of the US economy and the abuses of the robber barons. Also, voter turnout for 2018 (50.3%), another revolt to a new gilded age, comes close to the rate of the 1914 (50.4%) midterms. So if the history of gilded ages is repeating itself, maybe voter turnout levels will repeat those from a century ago? See related graph of historical VEP rates.

 

Getting 64.1% of Eligible voters can provide a 53% portion of the 2020 total vote.

2020WinScenario.png

 

 

Our 2018 voter turnout forecasts an achievable turnout in 2020.

National_Voter_Turnout_Series.png

 

These lost votes were not centrist voters.

Avoiding2016Losses.png

 

In another Pew Report they show that more Americans identify as Democrats.

Winning in 2020 with the estimated 53% of the total vote shown in the table included in above will require 12.6 million more Democratic votes than Obama got in 2008. That’s about 5.2% of the estimated eligible 2020 voter pool. Where will those votes come from? 

  • 3.6 million would come from those who voted for Obama in 2008 but stayed home in 2016,
  • 6 million would come from those who voted for Obama in 2008 but went 3rd party in 2016,
  • The remaining 3 million would come from those who didn’t vote in 2008 or 2016.
 
And all these voters will vote Democratic when they are inspired by the Democratic candidate who addresses the injustices they all feel are minimizing their sense of being treated equally.

 

Winning in 2020 - There Rides a Peace Train …

I’ve shared some of this before here and the GCDP website blog, So, here is a summary and it includes some new points that have recently come to the fore from others.
 

Our Declaration of Independence contains a list of abuses by the British oligarchs to justify our desire for independence. We need a new Declaration of Indepence documenting the decades of economic, social, racial, and environmental injustices pertetuated by today's oligarchs and their lackeys to justify reclaiming our government for the people.

We need messaging that avoids just pointing and naming our opponents as evil. We need messaging that shows we offer a remedy to their evil. We must show we understand the economic, social, racial, environmental injustices resulting from the oligarchs abusing their power:
 
"The morally right option is the one that maximizes equality by equally protecting and empowering the greatest number of citizens.” — C Andy Hailey
We need to reconnect with and repeatedly state our moral values. They are our foundation and are necessary to justify our policies that will address injustices:
 
 
====================================
“Now I've been crying lately, thinking about the world as it is
Why must we go on hating, why can't we live in bliss,
 
“Cause out on the edge of darkness, there rides a peace train
Oh peace train take this country, come take me home again”

Cat Stevens’ Peace Train, 1971

 

Winning in 2020 - A New Declaration of Independence

The Oligarchs of the late 1700s have been replaced by the Oligarchs of the early 2000s. The 2020 Election should be framed as a second Declaration of Independence.

 

Winning in 2020 - More Than Just Climbing Out Of a Deep Pit

It’s been a slow push. Some have seen it coming and have tried to warn others. Some have been pushing back to slow the slide into this deeper and deeper place. Others have finally realized how far we have been pushed and are pushing back desperately.
 
But this is a deep hole most of us are in and there are powerful forces working hard to keep us here, to gain even more control over our fate, and to keep us distracted from noticing them To us distracted, The Pushers tell some of us that the others down here are at fault and responsible for pushing us deeper.
 
Those few who have tried to warn everyone of the deepening pit are now trying to get everyone to ignore the distractions of The Pushers and look up to the top edge of the pit and see The Pushers. If we can just recognize the real evil keeping us down, we can work together and push back. There are millions more of us than them.
 
What those of us in this deep pit also have to realize is that not only do we have to get out together, we have to put The Pushers down here. They are the ones who got us to hate and harm one another. They are the ones who abused their freedoms and took ours. They are the ones who pushed us over decades into accepting massive inequality.
 
Now is the time, in a fantastically major way, to turn the tables.
 
Winning by 50% Plus 1, is insufficient. Taking back the Presidency is insufficient. Taking back the Senate and gaining more in the House is insufficient. Taking back more state governorships and legislatures is insufficient. Taking back local governments is insufficient.
 
The 2020 elections, and those leading up to that election, must be a fantastically amazing return to a moral authority that puts the WE back in WE THE PEOPLE. WE MUST end the economic, social, racial, and environmental injustices of The Pushers.
 

Want to help push back?

 

Winning in 2020 - Population Growth Benefits Democratic Candidates.

Special Report: Flipping Texas in 2020 is a compilation of research from 2017 and 2019 that offers data and makes the case for progressive victory in our state.”

 

 

Winning in 2020 - The New American Majority That Elected Obama

 
Steve Phillips, author of Brown Is The New White, researched and detailed all the factors behind Obama’s successful election campaigns and contrasted it with the losses of over 900 Democrats who lost their elections during Obama’s two terms in office.
 
One of the factors he found in the CNN election exit polls and other voting data was a group of Americans he named the New American Majority (NAM). The chart below is for the NAM in 2012 election. These are the voters who showed up for Obama, but weren’t inspired to vote for other Democrats.
 
Other factors included messaging differences and differences in where the campaign money was spent. In one race that Phillips analyzed for a female southern Senator, he found that a PAC had spend $20 million on TV ads focused on bashing her Republican opponent: He’s bad and I’m not. If that $20 million had instead been spent on the ground game, the campaign could have hired 400 block walkers for a year. Phillips predicts that the change in voter turnout from this refocusing of the campaign funds would have brought out enough votes for the Senator to have easily won re-election.
 
Since 2012, the NAM has grown with our changing Demographics. And the current administration has only activated the NAM: Black Lives Matter, She The People, Poor Peoples Campaign, Climate Strike, Fire Drill Fridays, Moral Mondays, Womans March, Huddle, Pantsuit Nation, Pantsuit Republic, March for Our Live, etc.
 

"Cultural competence in campaigns and the rest of the progressive movement is needed now more than ever in order to connect with the New American Majority. It’s been thirty years since Andy Young cast down the gauntlet. We can’t afford to wait another thirty."

 

DemoRevolution51Percent.jpg

 

Since publishing his book, Steve Phillips has written many follow-up articles including one analyzing the reasons for losing in 2016. It’s not for the reasons we've been told.
 
"The far more important — and largely untold — story of the election is that more Obama voters defected to third- and fourth-party candidates than the number who supported Mr. Trump. That is the white flight that should most concern the next D.N.C. chairman, because those voters make up a more promising way to reclaim the White House. The way to win them back is by being more progressive, not less.”

 

Winning in 2020 - It'a about the kind of government we will chose:

 

Post depression/post WWII and pre 1980s government: Government of, by, and for the People requires:

 
1. Government with the moral purpose to equally protect and empower ALL the People such that 1) People’s individual freedoms are maximized and 2) Economic, social, racial, and environmental injustices are minimized, and
2. Active participation (voting and paying citizenship dues) of a majority of the people to maintain such a government.
 
OR
 
Post 1980’s government: Government of, by, and only for the successful requires:
 
1. Government with the focused purpose to protect and enrich only the successful such that their individual freedom and wealth are maximized without concern for any resulting injustices, and
2. Active participation (voting, lobbying and campaign payments) of just the successful, and their admirers, to maintain such a government.
"The morally right option is the one that maximizes equality by equally protecting and empowering the greatest number of citizens.” — Andy Hailey
 

Winning in 2020 - Women of Color are Key

 
Women of color have tremendous power. The data tell the story that we will be a driving force in the 2020 election and beyond:
 
  • WOMEN OF COLOR ARE 20% OF THE POPULATION AND MORE THAN A QUARTER OF ALL DEMOCRATS.
  • WOMEN OF COLOR ARE ONE IN FOUR VOTERS IN KEY SWING STATES.
  • WOMEN OF COLOR WERE CRUCIAL TO DEMOCRATS’ 2018 VICTORIES. TURNOUT AMONG WOMEN OF COLOR INCREASED 37% COMPARED WITH THE 2014 MIDTERMS. ASIAN AMERICAN AND PACIFIC ISLANDER WOMEN INCREASED 48%, BLACK WOMEN 28%, AND LATINAS 51%.
  • OVER THE LAST DECADE, WHEN TURNOUT AMONG WOMEN OF COLOR HAS BEEN ABOVE THE NATIONAL AVERAGE, DEMOCRATS HAVE WON. WHEN THEIR TURNOUT IS BELOW, DEMOCRATS HAVE LOST.
 
 
 

 

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